The #s Don't Lie. Sorry.

For those Dodger fans who are all excited because the Blue has come back from one of the most dismal losing streaks – a week and a half of some of the most awful performances I’ve ever seen – to beat the team they’re currently trailing and two of the best pitchers in the game to close to within 2 1/2 games of first place, don’t be. This Dodger team has shown you over and over that they can’t beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. If they had, they’d have at least spilt with Philly and swept the Nats and they’d be a few games in first today. The Snakes do have a tendency to win a lot of the games they need to win and I wouldn’t be surprised if they came back and beat the Redbirds today.

Sure, Manny’s being Manny again, while also channeling Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Griffey Jr in his prime, but he’s still all they got. If I'm managing the opposing team, let's just walk or pitch around Manny and wait for a Loney DP. Let’s have a look at the numbers. “The numbers don’t tell everything,” you say? Sure, there are intangibles that the numbers don’t reflect, but there’s no better overall indication of how good a team really is than the numbers that team’s players put up. And the numbers the Dodgers put up are not very impressive. Aside from Manny, who, by seasons end, will have amassed well over 100 RBI between the Bosox and the Dodgers, they don’t have one other guy who will have 100, or possibly even 90 RBIs. That’s terrible, man! There are maybe 4 other teams in baseball who won't have a guy who drove in 100 runs while wearing that team's uniform for the whole season: the Royals, the Nationals, the Giants and Pittsburgh. Only James Loney and Manny are hitting .300 or higher, and Loney’s .300 comes with a grand total of 11 homers with around 74 RBIs. And he’s the team leader! Kemp is close to .300 but has only 16 home runs and fewer than 70 RBIs and has struck out almost a fourth of the time. Ethier leads the team with 18 home runs (Manny has 29, but only 9 with the Dodgers) which isn’t exactly gangbusters for Sept. 1st but it’s not horrible. His .277 average is respectable, but he only has 59 RBIs. In deference to Andre, had he not missed so many games having to platoon in the beginning of the season with Kemp, and then being sat in favor of The Stink and Pierre, his numbers may be much better. Still don’t think he’s an impact player. Martin’s numbers – 12 home runs, fewer than 60 RBIs, hitting around .280 - aren’t bad but not particularly impressive. Between Cleveland and LA, Casey Blake has 17 home runs (5 with the Dodgers) and has around 75 RBI’s, maybe 15-20 with the Blue. Not bad, not great, but he’s only hitting .256, can’t keep his bat back on pitches off the plate and grounds into a ton of DP’s. Unless Dr. Neal El Attrache finds very light ligament damage in Jeff Kent’s knee when he gets in there tomorrow, the first ballot Hall of Famer can probably call it a career. Certainly, this is his last year with the Dodgers and he should retire at year’s end. I respect Kent a lot, but at 40 years old, his power went south – 11 home runs, drove in around 60 while raising his average to .274 after Manny arrived. Not too great. His replacement, Blake DeWitt probably won’t do much better. Actually, he should do worse. Garciaparra is not a factor, hitting .169 since he came off the DL in mid August and hitting around .225 overall with no pop. Angel Berroa? Please. Now that you’ve seen these numbers, compare them to the numbers put up by each of other teams in contention for a playoff spot, including the Snakes. The conclusion you’ll come to is that the other teams put up much better numbers. Each and every one of them. Arizona, Colorado, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, New York, Philly and Florida all have superior numbers and the numbers don’t lie. What do the superior numbers tell us? They tell us that the other teams have more offensive weapons - more guys who come through in the clutch, more guys with the power to change or win ball games, more guys who take smarter approaches at the plate, more guys on whom you can rely. Put purely and simply, the Dodgers are a very mediocre team. Unless a team like that has Koufax, Drysdale and Sutton anchoring your pitching staff, that offense just isn’t good enough to get you to the post season. Billingsley, Lowe and Kuroda are not Koufax, Drysdale and Sutton.

"Well, then," you ask, "how do you explain the success of the Tampa Bay Rays?" Tampa Bay, like the Dodgers, have few impact players who will hit 30 or more home runs and drive in 100 or more runs this season. Evan Longoria was on his way to achieving these milestones before his injury and will likely still be named Rookie of the Year. Carl Crawford, who's been on the DL for quite some time now, was not having the offensive year he was supposed to have, but he was solid. B.J. Upton was supposed to put up bigger numbers and he, too, has disappointed to a degree, though he has been productive. Carlos Pena, hitting only .246, will be their lone 30 home run, 100 RBI guy. (So, if Longoria comes back, they'll really have 2) But the thing the Rays have that the Dodgers don't are 5 reliable starting pitchers in Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Sonnanstine and ex-Dodger Jackson. Their bullpen, in spite of injuries, has been excellent. The Dodgers bullpen has been inconsistent. The Rays manager, Joe Maddon is innovative and tough and well-liked by his players. He holds his players accountable for their actions or lack thereof and he fights for his team. Joe Torre lets his players get away with murder and doesn't care enough to make changes. The Rays bench - Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd, Willie Aybar - has proven to be one of the deepest and most clutch in baseball. Outside of Juan Pierre, the Dodgers bench sucks. So, that should answer your question. The Rays are better than the Dodgers by leaps and bounds and that's why they lead Boston by 5 1/2 games and have won 84 games at the time of this writing.

Back to the numbers. Do the Dodgers medicore numbers mean there’s no way they can win? No. It means that unless the Snakes just tank or unless they can collectively improve a great deal – that means each player in the lineup – during the final month of the season, they won’t play in the post season.

Well, the D’backs came back and beat the Cards. The Dodgers, meanwhile ahost San Diego tonight. The Dodgers historically stink against the Dads. Doesn’t look good. Why? Because Maddux is going. Because it’s San Diego. But mostly, because it’s a must win game against a bad team and the numbers are not in the Dodgers' favor.