Thursday, March 5, 2009

Finally! But ...

Well, the deal, such as it is, is done and the Dodgers can concentrate on pissing off Juan Pierre from now, at least, until the trade deadline. Manny is a Dodger for 2009, and, as far as this blogger is concerned, it'll probably be his first and last full season as a Dodger. I still believe, and will always believe that Manny's amazing play in the final 2 and a half months of last season earned him a guaranteed 3 year deal worth $70 million. I still think McCourt is a cheapskate who cares more about his own image than the Dodgers winning anything. As the deal goes, Manny has a "2 year" $45 million dollar deal (not really) with an opt out clause at the end of the season. He'll be paid $10 million this year, and if he chooses to stay in LA for the 2nd season, the Dodgers will pay him $10 million next year and $8.33 million over the next 3 years. If he chooses to leave (which I think he will) the Dodgers will pay him $5 million over the next 3 seasons. (So, they'll be giving a guy who doesn't play for them five million bucks for 3 seasons)

So, McCourt comes out looking like the conquering hero who slayed the fire breathing Scott Boras. ... Not so much. By not signing him to a guaranteed 3 year deal, McCourt has let the evil Scott Boras win again. Hey, I realize the economy is tanking, but look at the deals Teixeira and Sabathia got from the Yankees. Teams are still doing business. I know Manny'll be 37 this year, but he hits like he's 27 and the Dodgers will need him beyond this year. He'll have another stellar season and, at year's end, the Yankees or some other opportunistic AL club, (maybe even an NL club) will finally take notice and offer him a more lucrative, longer term deal than the Dodgers have offered him. Like JD Drew, he and Boras will exercise his opt out clause and it's good bye, Manny. The vindictive, revenge-minded Boras will take him out of LA and the fans will be sad, yet again. (Not that I was particularly sad to see Drew go, but I was surprised at how well he did in Boston) Of course, there's always the chance that Manny will become so enamored of LA, that he'll decide to stick around and perhaps a new deal can be worked out. But I doubt it. Why? Well, reason number one: No championship possibilities.

Because even with Manny, the Dodgers stand no chance of getting to the World Series with the pitching they currently have. It would take a miracle for them to be a championship caliber club with young Chad Billingsley anchoring a rotation that includes Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf, the child Clayton Kershaw and who knows? Unless, right now, Billingsley becomes the outright ace they hoped he would become and James McDonald emerges along with Kershaw, or Jason Schmidt comes back from the deadarmed dead, they're going to need to score tons of runs. That means 40 plus homers from Ramirez and 30 plus homers from Kemp and Ethier. Not gonna happen. They're going to need to package Pierre and some of their promising youth (maybe Blake DeWitt, but I hope not) for a frontline starter from a team that has no chance, like a Jake Peavy.

If the Dodgers had failed to sign Manny, I'd be furious. (Still furious about having to go through this again at the end of the season) But if I were a Giants fan, I'd be even more furious. With the pitching staff the Giants have amassed, Manny would have guranteed them the Western Division title and, probably a trip to the NLCS and WS. They wouldn't even have had to play the games. They could've written it in. Why would the Giants not have tried harder to make a deal for him?? Especially since they could have deferred payments like the Dodgers did. Manny for $10 mil and a guranteed trip to the Playoffs? Why the hell not? If I'm a Giants fan today, I'm not at all pleased with my ownership. But, let's not count out the Snakes. The Arizona Diamondbacks are a very solid team. With a rotation led by the great Brandon Webb, a healthy Eric Byrnes and Upton, Young, Jackson, Reynolds and Drew another year older and wiser, this team can be good. It's gonna be a three team race. Manny gives the Dodgers a very slight edge, but only if amazing things happen with their pitching.

Japan beats China in the first game of the World Baseball Classic. The Dominican loses ARod to hip surgery (as may the Yankees) I haven't gotten into it yet, what with all the Manny shenanigans, but I'm starting to get excited.

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