Soon To Be Around .500

The Dodgers pulled out an impressive win Tuesday Night against their rivals to the North, but Billingsley was on the mound. Though he wasn't that sharp, he was on his game enough to keep the Dodgers in the game and their attack - Manny & Andre - was able to score enough runs to eek out a win. The Giants have a fairly poor attack, but their pitching is nearly stellar, so it's always nice to get a win up in the cold of ATT Park. However, the matchup for last night's game - Stults vs. Lincecum -was a predetermined loss. The Cy Young winner looked great, Stults looked awful. He simply is not a big league pitcher. There's something unacceptable about a team that goes into games with absolutely no chance to win, but when you have the poor starting pitching the Dodgers have, it certainly won't be the first time that happens in '09. Assuming Wolf finishes around .500 which is his MO - let's project him out at 14-14 by season's end - and Kuroda gets healthy enough to win, say, 10 games - and Billingsley wins a whopping 20 - then that's 34 wins from your top 3 starters. Let's give 26 wins to their entire bullpen - Broxton 5, Kuo, 4, Belisario, 4, Wade 5. Troncoso, 4, Ohman 2, Mota 2. That comes to 60 wins. Now, what about the other 2 starters? Kershaw doesn't look good at all. He'll have moments of brilliance and some effective games mixed with the youthful deer in the headlights phenomenon from which he's currently suffering. Let's project him out to 10 wins. McDonald, who goes tonight, looks terrible. Let's assume he gets something out of his talent before the season ends and he wins 10. Okay, so that's 74 wins plus, say, 4 from Stults. 84 wins. It MAY be enough to win the West, bit it's not enough to beat anybody good. Purely and simply, the Dodgers need starting pitching or you can count on more games like last night's against the Santanas, Zambranos, Lohses, Josh Johnsons, Gallardos - basically, most teams' number 1 & 2 starters. Their bullpen, meanwhile, is so unreliable, that unless they have at least a 3 run lead in the middle to late innings, you can count on them needing more runs to pull out a win, which their offense has luckily provided a few times already this season.

In addition, Martin is hitting .216 and the league is beginning to figure out that he can't throw anyone out. Ausmus, meanwhile, is an amazing defensive catcher who is hitting over .400. How far into May will this continue before Ausmus starts getting even more PT? How far into May will it be before Blake De Witt starts getting more at bats over the weak-hitting (5 home runs aside) Casey Blake? So, I hate to sound pessimistic, but don't let 14-8 fool you. They open against the Daddies tonight at home and they have a shot at beating this Greer kid, but sooner or later, they're going to have to play teams outside their division and, at least based on what I've seen so far, they'll lose more than half the games Billingsley doesn't pitch.