Hate to Say "I Told Ya So," but ... I Told Ya So.

The smoke and mirrors have run out. Like the strike-split season of 1981, the Dodgers won the 1st half. However, they're fairly miserable in the 2nd half, and unlike the 1981 season, they don't get an automatic post season bid by virtue of their 1st half performance. This mediocre team with weak starting pitching and an awful bullpen, whose star hitter is clearly not the same off the "meds," is playing the way they're built to play: Poorly. Kershaw has reverted to his youthful, unpolished self, Kuroda has a headache and they still don't have a number 1 starter. Along with Manny being Mario Mendoza, Furcal is doing nothing, Martin, in spite of his aberrational grand slam last night, is contributing little offensively and killing them behind the dish, and Loney has been awful. (One may argue Loney has 76 RBI, therefore, he's contributing, but see his totals since July 15th) In short, their offense is weak. As Kurt Streeter wrote in yesterday's Times, they simply can't touch teams' numbers 1 and 2 starters. The acquisition of Vicente Padilla will be of little or no help. He's simply not a difference maker, and on top of that, he's an asshole. Colletti's failure to land Halladay, Lee or Peavy speaks to the reality that McCourt will not pay what's necessary to build a winner as well as to Ned's own ineptitude. The truth is out: As far as the McCourts are concerned, the Manny signing was to generate Manny revenue. If they truly wanted to hoist a World Series trophy, he'd have added the pitching they so desperately needed. Again, fans, in the final analysis, the record from April to July means nada, zilch, the null set. Oh, sure, it's the reason the Dodgers are in first place and still hold the best overall record in the NL, but it's not a true measure of what kind of team they are. It pains me to say this, but taking all facets into consideration - starting pitching, bullpen, hitting, power, OBP, defense, the Dodgers are now the 7th or 8th best team in the NL and will likely miss the playoffs completely unless they can spur some kind of Renaissance. Here are my 2nd half rankings of the NL's top teams:

1) St. Louis - far and away, better than the Blue and my choice to go to the World Series. They've shown willingness to do what it takes to win evidenced by their acquisitions of Holliday, De Rosa, Lugo and now, Smoltz. They have Carpenter and Wainwright, along with Piniero and have an amazing middle of the order. Better managed than the Dodgers.

2) Philadelphia - Close to St. Louis. A very well balanced club and with Cliff Lee and that offense, can win a short series and advance.

3) Colorado - More solid than most analysts give them credit for. Tracy has gotten everyone to contribute, in spite of some lowe BAs. Great starting pitching 1 -5, which no other NL team can boast. Clint Barmes has 20 HRs and Tulo is back to his 2007 form.

4) Atlanta - Solid starting pitching 1 -4, with a rapidly improving offense. May give the WC a serious run.

5) San Francisco - Cain & Lincecum, an improved offense and able to execute. Consistency from their big hitter anchors the rest of a fairly weak lineup.

6) Florida - Josh Johnson, along with Carpenter, Wainwright, Lincecum and Cain is a bonafide Cy Young candidate. They have a solid starter in Volstad and Nolasco is on the mend. They also have the 2nd best player in the NL in Hanley Ramirez and hitting and power throughout the lineup. They're hungrier than the Dodgers.

7) Chicago - I know, I know, the Cubs stink, they've lost 9 out of their last 13 and even we beat 'em last night. Okay. But on paper, the Cubbies should be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league. They've endured countless injuries and their All Star pitching staff has underachieved. With Aramis Ramirez healthy and Zambrano coming off the DL, look for them to rebound. Don't let the records fool you. Top to bottom, with the exception of a bad bullpen, they're a better team than the Dodgers.

8) The Dodgers - When Randy Wolf is now your ace, you're in trouble. Billingsley looked okay his last start, but he's clearly not in the same league as the above mentioned hurlers. Without one, your post season chances are dim. Manny has obviously been weakened now that he's off the juice and too many guys no longer contribute offensively. Loney, who should've been dealt before the deadline, grounds into way too many DPs and Martin simply kills them with his defense. Jonathan Broxton looks like a deer in the headlights and could be and, should be, done as the closer, especially since the acquisition of George Sherrill. The team does not play baseball the way it's meant to be played. They cannot hit cutoff men, they cannot execute simple sac bunts and hit and runs and Joe Torre, in my opinion, has not done a good job. He over utilizes these strategies when the team clearly can't perform them and jostles the lineup way too much. The smoke and mirrors are over.