Thursday, April 30, 2009

Soon To Be Around .500

The Dodgers pulled out an impressive win Tuesday Night against their rivals to the North, but Billingsley was on the mound. Though he wasn't that sharp, he was on his game enough to keep the Dodgers in the game and their attack - Manny & Andre - was able to score enough runs to eek out a win. The Giants have a fairly poor attack, but their pitching is nearly stellar, so it's always nice to get a win up in the cold of ATT Park. However, the matchup for last night's game - Stults vs. Lincecum -was a predetermined loss. The Cy Young winner looked great, Stults looked awful. He simply is not a big league pitcher. There's something unacceptable about a team that goes into games with absolutely no chance to win, but when you have the poor starting pitching the Dodgers have, it certainly won't be the first time that happens in '09. Assuming Wolf finishes around .500 which is his MO - let's project him out at 14-14 by season's end - and Kuroda gets healthy enough to win, say, 10 games - and Billingsley wins a whopping 20 - then that's 34 wins from your top 3 starters. Let's give 26 wins to their entire bullpen - Broxton 5, Kuo, 4, Belisario, 4, Wade 5. Troncoso, 4, Ohman 2, Mota 2. That comes to 60 wins. Now, what about the other 2 starters? Kershaw doesn't look good at all. He'll have moments of brilliance and some effective games mixed with the youthful deer in the headlights phenomenon from which he's currently suffering. Let's project him out to 10 wins. McDonald, who goes tonight, looks terrible. Let's assume he gets something out of his talent before the season ends and he wins 10. Okay, so that's 74 wins plus, say, 4 from Stults. 84 wins. It MAY be enough to win the West, bit it's not enough to beat anybody good. Purely and simply, the Dodgers need starting pitching or you can count on more games like last night's against the Santanas, Zambranos, Lohses, Josh Johnsons, Gallardos - basically, most teams' number 1 & 2 starters. Their bullpen, meanwhile, is so unreliable, that unless they have at least a 3 run lead in the middle to late innings, you can count on them needing more runs to pull out a win, which their offense has luckily provided a few times already this season.

In addition, Martin is hitting .216 and the league is beginning to figure out that he can't throw anyone out. Ausmus, meanwhile, is an amazing defensive catcher who is hitting over .400. How far into May will this continue before Ausmus starts getting even more PT? How far into May will it be before Blake De Witt starts getting more at bats over the weak-hitting (5 home runs aside) Casey Blake? So, I hate to sound pessimistic, but don't let 14-8 fool you. They open against the Daddies tonight at home and they have a shot at beating this Greer kid, but sooner or later, they're going to have to play teams outside their division and, at least based on what I've seen so far, they'll lose more than half the games Billingsley doesn't pitch.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Curb Your Enthusiasm...

Hate to sound negative, but the Dodgers winning 2 out of 3 in Denver against the lowly Rockies did nothing to encourage me. James McDonald looked barely passable in his victory. One bright spot was that Ramon Trancos-oh no! actually seemed poised and pitched effectively. But Manny shoulda' hit 3 homers and he didn't. Martin shoulda' found some semblance of a power stroke and he didn't. I mean, what else is Coors Field is for? But the thing that I found most disturbing was young Clayton Kershaw's second consecutive horrific outing. He looked terrible! In 3 out of his 4 starts, in this early stage of the season, he has thrown way too many pitches, walked way too many guys and, with the exception of his 13 K game against the Giants at home, he doesn't seem to have an out pitch. Guys just keep fouling balls off against him until they either walk or get a hit. He looks nervous, unsure, and tentative. In other words, he looks like he's 21. Problem is, they need him to be so much more advanced in order to have a serious shot at winning anything. Because, let's face it. He's the guy with the talent. They know what they're not gonna get from Wolf and McDonald is further behind than Kershaw. Stults is likely just a band-aid until Kuroda gets back and, based on how he's progressing, who knows when that'll be? The bottom line is, THIS TEAM NEEDS TO GET AT LEAST ONE TOP FLIGHT STARTER OR THEY WILL NOT WIN A PENNANT. Hell, they may not even win the weak West. In addition, they're showing themselves to be not a very good road team and, besides Houston and a slumping Arizona, they've yet to play anyone with an offense.

I know it was cold and windy, but last night's loss to the Giants was ridiculous. Why Joe Torre insists on running Belisario out there for 2 innings every night is beyond me. They blew the game with stupid defense, but once they took the lead in the 7th, it should've stood. Why is Torre not using Kuo? Is he hurt again? You have other arms in the pen. If you use Belisario in the 7th, can't you use Kuo in the 8th? Or Ohman? Or Mota? Why do you have these guys on the roster if you're just going to count on 1 or 2 of them before you get to Broxton? It's not even that Belisario pitched that poorly, outside of the 2 leadoff singles in the 8th. (Why didn't Torre lift him then?) But an experienced Little Leaguer would've realized he didn't have a play at the plate on that little nubber by Aurilia. Brutal!

Matt Kemp, meanwhile, needs to learn how to play centerfield. He should've ridden out there on a tricycle wearing a big green wig, a big red nose and giant floppy shoes. He consistently gets poor jumps or misjudges balls that should be outs and he needs to learn to take charge.

I know it's early but ... is it my imagination or is "the O Dog" a hundred times better as a lefthanded hitter? It seems like his bat is really slow swinging from the right side. And is it my imagination or is Russell Martin getting worse and worse as the months go by? He looks clueless at the plate and behind the plate.

THE MAIN POINT: The 2 major aspects I expressed concern about at the start of the season appear to be rearing their ugly heads. Pitching - both starting and relief in the middle and late innings - will prove to be the Blue's undoing in '09 unless Ned can get real creative. We've talked about Wolf. He's so-so at best. The oft injured Kuroda is okay when he's healthy, but by no means reliable. Phenom, Kershaw seems not quite ready to become the stud he's projected to be and McDonald appears to be a year or 2 away from really rounding out a quality staff. So, it's Billingsley, then pray for rain. And if Chad does't have it, it could be 5 or 6 game losing streak time. Again: You can't lose a Derek Lowe and then not replace him. As for the bullpen, well, if Kuo can't go and Wade is frayed, then we're in a lot of trouble. It's going to be extremely difficult to win close games, as evidenced last night. Think we can win the pennant? Then we'd better average 7 runs a game.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

EXPOSED!

The 3 game series with Houston has exposed many, if not all, of the Dodgers’ weaknesses. They easily could’ve won 2 out of 3, or they could’ve just as easily been swept. They wound up salvaging the last game on a brilliant performance from their now confirmed ace, Chad Billingsley last night.

The 1977 Dodgers were one of a select few teams in MLB history to have 4 players bang out 30 home runs. (Garvey, Cey, Baker, Smith) This years Dodgers may come close. Manny, Ethier, Kemp and Blake each have a shot at a 5 homer April. And the season is 6 months long. However, the power which certainly came through at Minute Maid Park was undone by the porous bullpen and starting pitching, two huge factors which may or may not prove to be the Blue’s undoing in ’09. I hate to say I told you so, but the “woeful” Astros gave the Dodgers a lot of trouble and that Astros team will not be going gently into that good night in spite of what the so-called experts predict. Hunter Pence is becoming a bona fide star who can run, hit, hit for power, and field. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are studs and they have a very solid one-two on the mound with Oswalt and the emerging Wandy Rodriguez. Tejada and Pudge, in spite of their being somewhat long on the tooth, are still viable stars and Jeff Keppinger is underrated. Michaels and Bourn are a solid platoon in center and Kaz Matsui is pesky. Make no mistake. This is a tough team. And in their ’09 debut against a tough team, the Dodgers failed fairly miserably.

Young Kershaw looked like a deer in the headlights Tuesday night. He had extreme difficulty with his command and it seemed like the middle of the ‘Stros order was up constantly. Like many young aces to be, he threw way too many pitches and walked too many people. They should’ve won that game because Russ Ortiz looked even worse, but they handed Ortiz the win. Wednesday night, the mediocre Randy Wolf struck again. I hate to say I called it, but I called it. It was a typical Wolf weak start after a strong start. He couldn’t hit his spots and got blasted. And when the Dodgers blasters powered them back into the lead, the phenom from a few days ago, Ronald Belisario quickly squandered it. I think we may be starting to see why this guy has been a career minor leaguer. He was just too hittable and has been his last 2 out 3 appearances. If he implodes again his next time out, he’ll be dubbed Ronald Beli- ‘sorry-o” and the honeymoon will be officially over. So, why didn’t Torre go with Hong Chih Kuo in the 8th inning of Wednesday night? Sore neck. And that's the problem with Kuo. He's injured as often as he is healthy. With Corey Wade still rehabbing, they have few choices in that pen. If you ask me, Guillermo Mota has seen better days and Will Ohman is strictly a lefty specialist. That leaves Ramon “Trancos-oh no!” who’s not good or asking Broxton to get 5 to 8 outs every time they have a late inning lead. So, in spite of an effective fireballer in Broxton who’s been mixing his offspeed stuff with his express with amazing acuity, their pen is suspect. With Billingsley being the only starter who fits the description of being truly reliable, Kuroda still on the DL, and the other options being a tried and untrue Stults and a not quite ready for prime time McDonald, the soft underbelly of this team may well be dangerously exposed.

Also, we saw some rare poor fielding from Furcal and very little hitting from little him. That simply can’t continue. Raffy, Martin and Loney have to join the hit parade. Tonight we open up an always difficult series in Denver and I’m sure Hurdle and his Mountains want some payback. Let’s see how Eric Stults fares in the rarified mile high air. Still, this Dodgers team is an offensive juggernaut, the likes of which I haven’t seen, perhaps since the 70’s. Yes, even more so, perhaps than the failed Piazza, Mondesi,, Karros teams of the ‘90s. They need to prove, however, that they can beat the real teams and that they can win on the road. In the meantime, so much for going 159-3.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Hitting. What A Concept!

Let's not get too excited only 2 weeks into the season. In 2005 the Dodgers started the season 12-2 and finished in 4th place at 71-91. The difference between this 10-3 start and 05's 12-2 start? The '05 team had no business bieng 12-2. They were awful. This team is not awful. In fact, if Ramirez continues to heat up, if Hudson, Ethier (NL Player of the Week) and Kemp stay reasonably hot, if Furcal hits like he always does, if Loney and Martin step it up just a notch (which they will) and if Casey Blake can hit at least .260, this team will be impossible to outscore. But the pitching ... If Billingsley and Kershaw become Koufax and Drysdale, the Dodgers will win the World Series in '09. However, that seems rather unlikely. My guess is they'll still be in need of an arm come mid-season. But so far, they've allowed the fewest runs in the NL and their bullpen has been solid. Now it's time to see what happens when they play teams outside their division, ie, real teams. The LA Times described the Houston Astros as woeful, at 4-8, but any team with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence is far from woeful. I think they'll improve and they may give the Blue a little bit of trouble. There are still many questions: Every one of Kershaw's starts will be so telling. Can he put together 4 or 5 good starts in a row? James McDonald, meanwhile, suddenly can't get the ball over the plate and has thrown way too many pitches in his 2 starts. Bit of a disappointment. Will he bounce back or is he destined for Albuquerque? Will Eric Stults still be able to adequately repalce Kuroda while we wait for his oblique to heal? Will they be able to replace the injured Corey Wade in the pen? Will Hong Chi Kuo continue to struggle as he has his last 2 outings? This is why the season is 162 games long. The one question other teams should be asking about playing the Dodgers is, "How the hell do we get through that lineup?"

I played in my first organized game since 2004 on Saturday. There's something very wrong with my arm. I used to have a hose. Now I have no idea where the ball is going to go and my elbow is killing me. And I played 2nd freaking base. Also, I managed to pull a hammy but simply taking a step back and to the right on a liner to center. I MUST NOT BE OLD!! We played a team of 20 year olds and lost 6-1, but it was our first game as a new team. Offensively, I was 2 for 3, but the first hit - a hard grounder down the 3rd baseline on a first pitch fastball - would've easily been a double a few years ago. I'm in pretty good shape - lift weights 5 days a week, do an hour of sustained interval cardio on the treadmill and Arc Trainer 3 times a week, but in sprinting around the bases I almost passed away. Still, sore back, pulled hammy and sore elbow, it felt great to play again. I feel rejuvenated. I've momentarily forgotten my malignant troubles and can look forward to more at bats. And I gotta tell ya, right now, you can't get a ball by me. I just hope I can make the throw from 2nd to 1st and not channel Steve Sax.

Friday, April 17, 2009

No Complaints ... Yet. Should We Be Worried?

What can you say? A sweep of the Giants and a five game winning streak is a beautiful thing. A blowout, a come from behind win following the first major bullpen implosion of the young season, and a convincing 7-2 win. Stults looked okay in his second outing. The messianic Ronald Belisario pitched well again in relief. And, let's face it, the team hits. Things to worry about: Manny has yet to really drive a ball, let alone hit one out? Should we be worried? Not yet. He'll be there soon. Loney has shown better plate discipline but no power. Should we be worried? No. He'll hit a few homers, but he's there to drive in runs. Casey Blake, when he isn't hitting a home run, looks absolutely clueless at the plate. Should we be worried? Naw. He's got a track record of better than reasonable production, a lot of pop, and he's our number 8 hitter. He's kind of like Adam Dunn, only he can field. Russell Martin looks weak at the plate, still, not much power. Should we be worried? Well, based on his performance last year, maybe a little. Randy Wolf is pitching tonight. Should we be worried? Well, as I type, Randy has 2 Rockies out with one on in the top of the first. ... Garret Atkins just doubled to the gap in right center, scoring Ryan Spillborghs. 1-zip, Mountains. Looks like Kemp shoulda had it. Should we be worried? Nope. Only the top of one. Wait a minute... he just gave up a 2-run homer to Brad Hawpe and a single by Tulowitski. It's now 3-zip. Should we be worried? Yep. See past blogs. What did I say about Randy Wolf? One day he's horrible, then he's great, then he's horrible, then he's just okay, then he's horrible, then he's great, then he's horrible again.

Tomorrow, I put the spikes back on and play in my first game since '04. We're the Cardinals of the Beverly Hills Wood Bat League. Should we be worried? Yeah, probably. I can't even throw anymore. Should be interesting.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Thing Of Beauty: O Dog Wins Best in Show

It doesn't get much better than this. An home openers, an amazing rendition of the National Anthem by a teenage Filipino girl, an amazing performance by Chad Billingsley whom they're couting on to be their ace, and an 11-1 rout of the hated Giants and the Big Unit, including the first cycle by a Dodger since the breakup of the Beatles!! Orlando Hudson, the "O Dog," started off with a squib single, followed by a hoer to left off a Johnson breaking ball, then a double into the gap, then, hitting lefthanded against the right handed reliever, Medders, a triple into the right field corner. Four at bats and the first cycle in 39 years. He made it look so easy, kind of hard to believe more guys haven't managed it since Wes Parker did it in '70. Also, if I'm not mistaken, Parker did it in extra innings. Angels shortstop, Jim Fregosi did it at Dodger stadium in 1964, when the expansion Angels called it home before moving to their new digs in Anaheim in '65. But today, the O Dog became the first Dodger to do it at the Ravine or anywhere since the Brady Bunch hit the small screen. What a player Hudson is. If he can stay healthy, I would hate to be the opposing pitcher having to face Furcal and him at the top of the lineup.

Today, everyone started hitting. Ethier went off with 2 HRS and even Martin had a couple of hits. This is the way the team should be expected to play throughout the season. If only they had a solid starting rotation. If the rotation read, Sabathia or Burnett or Peavy, then Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda & Wolf, I'd pick the Blue to play in the World Series. Why? Because though I'm not completely sure of Kemp (he has a hit in each of their 8 games) and Martin, and I'm not entirely sure about Loney's power, I know Furcal, Hudson Manny, Ethier and Loney are all going to hit. I know this team is going to score a lot of runs. If Kemp and Martin can produce, this offense can be unstoppable. Even their bench, with Loretta, Castro, Pierre, Ausmus and Mientkevitch, is solid. My question remains, why didn't McCourt replace Derek Lowe with a quality arm? I'm dubious as to whether or not Randy Wolf can provide such a replacement but hope springs eternal. But concerns or no, today was perfect. Wish I had been there. Even the little one-named babe - a different one-named babe than the one who sang the Anthem - who sang America the Beautiful during the 7th inning stretch was unreal. Best rendition I ever heard.

Okay, so we're 5-3, a day off tomorrow and Kershaw vs. Cain on Wednesday. With the surprisingly poor start Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is off to, Matt Cain may well be the Giants ace this year. He gives the Blue a very difficult time. Kersshaw is coming off a decent but control challenged first start. I know it's only the 2nd week of the season, but this game is huge. A win against Cain with a strong outing by Kershaw could help set the tone for a great season. Maybe even Manny can get off the home run shnide. (Is that you spell "shinide?")

On a sad note, meanwhile, what the hell is going on? Guys in and around baseball are dying like flies. Again, we are diminsihed. First we lose young stud, Nick Adenhart last week, then today, the great Charlie Kalas, whose inimitable voice has been synonomous with the Philadelphia Phillies since 1971, collapses and dies in the broadcast booth in DC before the Nats home opener against the Phils. Then, only an hour later, we get the news that the loveable Mark "The Bird" Fidrych, age 54, was found dead at his farm in Northborough, Mass. They're saying he'd been working on a car and there was an accident.

Next to only the great Vin Scully and one of my personal faves, Dick Enberg, I delighted in hearing Kalas call a game more than anyone. He was only 73 and the blessing, I suppose, is that he got to call the Phils final out of their first World Series championship since 1980, only 5 short months before he passed. As far as "The Bird," he was famous for one amazing year in 1976, the year he broke in. He was 19-9 that year with an ERA of 2.34. He only pitched for 4 more years, never winning more than 6 games. But what he brought to baseball in that bicentennial year will never be forgotten. The awkward, curly-headed kid loved being out there and it was visible every time he took the mound. But he was more known for his behavior than for his prowess on the field. He was a nut, or a "loony bird," actually talking to the ball between pitches. There was no one else like him and I certainly wish he could have refrained from working on his car today. It's been a rough week, Lord. Can ya give baseball a break on the dying for a while? Jeez.

Go, Dodgers.

Arizona

Well, whenever you can go into Phoenix and beat the D'backs 2 out of 3, you have to be pleased. In spite of young James McDonald's 3rd inning implosion Friday night, they managed to come back Saturday and destroy Arizona pitching, following a few solid innings from Brandon Webb replacement, Yusmeiro Petit while, out of nowhere, Eric Stults comes in fro New Mexico and pitches a gem and Randy Wolf looks like a Cy Young candidate yesterday afternoon. For the last few years, Stults has been one of those guys who gets a call up, pitches great, looks like he's ready, then goes out there and stinks so badly, it looks like he's doomed to be a career minor leaguer. The 28 year-old looked poised. Some of his stuff looked downright nasty. Could it be that, in spite of a poor spring training while mourning the death of his mother, that Eric is finally ready to be a big league pitcher? Maybe even fill that spot in the rotation for which James McDonald may not be quite ready? We'll see. Stults'll start again later this week. As for Wolf, I'm afraid it's typical. A poor outing, a great outing. If his next start follows along with his usual pattern, it should be a mediocre to poor outing. The Dodgers really need Wolf to string together some wins and be confident and consistent. He's never been anything more than a number 3 or 4 caliber starter. Maybe he can turn it up a notch in '09. He certainly has great stuff. The bats? Well, they had the 11 run game Saturday, but they've been kind of flat with the exception of Kemp, Hudson, Loney and Manny. And Manny's power swing still isn't quite there. No homers yet. They'll be there soon enough. Blake has a couple but he looks awful otherwise. Russell Martin looks terrible. Ethier and Furcal look close to breaking out. We'll see.

Friday, April 10, 2009

No Man Is An Island

I went into my CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball site last night and I checked out the list of free agent starting pitchers - those pitchers that were not drafted by any of the 10 participants in our league - and there it was: the name of Nick Adenhart. I put my finger on the "add" button. It would've entailed my having to part with an active player - someone who still lives and breathes - "maybe Joe Blanton for Philly," I thought. "He had a bad start the other night." Then I thought more about it. I wanted Adenhart's name on my roster so badly. I wanted him to remain on my reserve list for the entire season. But how bad might I feel, if later in the year, it became necessary for me to add someone to the roster and there was no one else I could afford to drop? I would have to drop Adenhart and then I would feel awful. I did not add Adenhart to my roster.

Baseball is a game. There is joy and frustration, good luck and bad, some are paid handsomely to play, and some, like myself, pay to play. Baseball is springtime and summertime. Baseball is rejuvenation and rebirth. Baseball is youth. Baseball is life. Death is not supposed to be a part of it, but from time to time, in particular with the Angels organization, it becomes so. Then the game and all who are part of it and all who follow it, mourn. I never had a son and I can only imagine what it's like now to be Jim Adenhart, at the apex of pride and joy on Wednesday night and at the bottom of the deepest pit of devastation only hours later. Why? I know this is part of life, but why does it have to be? 22 years old and full of life, and his two young friends, their parents also mourning today. I feel regret when I hear of the deaths of people I've never met , untimely and otherwise, but when a ballplayer dies, I feel it more. Why is that? I think of the irony - all his proud friends and loved ones and teammates filled with aniticpation about his promising beginning only to be shocked by his sudden and unexpected end. A red light, an idiot drunk driver, three lives lost and one precariously holding on. Torii Hunter is right. We must take nothing for granted regarding those we care for. When I think of how everyone closely or loosely involved with baseball feels right now and how deep our sorrow is for the families of Nick Adenhart and his friends who perished with him, I'm reminded of John Donne's Meditation XVII: "No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main ... any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore, never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee." It sounds cliche, but a little of each of us died with Nick and his friends last night. We will go on, baseball will go on and some young pitcher will live the life Nick Adenhart was supposed to live. Good bye, Nick.

The Dodgers? Was there a game yesterday? Apparently there was, but no one told the bats. They're 2-2 against a fairly strong Triple A team with a tough 3 game series against the Snakes in Phoenix beginning tonight. Wonder what Plaschke has to say about their bullpen now? Aw, whatever. Today, anyway, it just doesn't seem that important.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Relax, Plaschke!

The thing I love about LA Times sportswriter, Bill Plaschke is his misplaced emotion, excitement and sentimentality. The thing I hate about him are his misplaced emotion, excitement and sentimentality. After a solid, but modest win against the minor league caliber San Diego Daddies in the season opener, Plaschke proclaimed that all the Dodgers' questions were answered and alluded to the October pop! of champagne bottles. Kemp homered and looked more selective. THAT game. (though he was badly fooled his first AB) Manny caused a little havoc on the bases. Loney hit in the clutch. Kuroda held his own through 5 2/3 and the bullpen didn't implode, with strong outings by Wade, Kuo and Broxton. The Blue were well on their way to an undefeated season. ... until last night when they stunk.

Randy Wolf looked just like I said he'd look: mediocre to bad. Okay, so it was just one game. No "I told you so's" from this blogger. I'm sure he'll pitch a gem this weekend. Then he'll stink again. Because he's Randy Wolf. The bats looked way off. Manny was being Andruw Jones and, like I predicted, Casey Blake, in spite of a weak sac fly, left many, many men on base as he flailed away. Furcal and Hudson lost that Opening Day magic from 27 hours prior and stunk. Ethier looked etherial. In other words, he seemed to be anethetized - sleepwalking through the game, offensively and defensively. Nice jump, Andre. Way to turn a double or an out into a triple in the 1st. Know Manny's the best hitter on the team, but wonder how long this Manny hitting 3rd, Ethier batting clean-up thing is gonna go on. Am I the only one who remembers how Ethier hit when he was batting IN FRONT of Manny last year??

Guillermo Mota looked a little shaky in his Dodger "re-debut" but the rest of the new pen - Ohman and Belasario, looked fine. Bottom line, they're 1-1 after having lost to one of the weakest starting lineups I've seen since the 1969 expansion Seattle Pilots. The season is now a mere 160 games long. They need to play much, much better in order to win the 89-93 games necessary to win the West. So, at least for April, hold off on that bubbly, Mr. Bubbly.

At least the season has begun and I can concentrate on baseball and get my mind off some of the little annoyances life has to offer of late. By the way, anyone got a place for me to live? Something to eat, maybe?

Monday, April 6, 2009

And So It Begins ...

The season starts today and I still feel the Dodgers pitching staff doesn’t merit them a first place prediction in the NL West. They simply don’t have any veteran aces to counteract the certain growing pains of their mostly young staff. Meanwhile, Arizona, minus a Manny (which is saying a lot) have a similarly potentially potent offesnse, while boasting a much better starting staff anchored by Webb & Haren. Neither John Garland nor Doug Davis are Cy Young candidates, but if young phenom Scherzer turns out to be the real deal, the Dodgers hopes could be sunk. I ask again: How do you simply let a Derek Lowe walk away and not bother replacing him? Also, the Dodgers bullpen leaves much to be desired. Hard to throw so much responsibility on the shoulders of young Corey Wade and the oft injured Hong Chi Kuo. Broxton simply doesn't seem ready to close games for this club. I see a lot of leads disappearing until something can be done.

Today the Dodgers open their season against a nemesis they haven’t beaten since 2003 – Jake Peavy – who should be starting today FOR THE DODGERS against San Diego. They could’ve had Peavy in an offseason trade that likely would’ve cost them Kemp and a young arm. If that young arm didn’t have to be Billingsley or Kershaw, you make that deal. Okay, so they didn’t. I still think the “kids” – Martin, Loney, Ethier and Kemp - have a lot to prove this season, but, provided they come through, the Dodgers’ offense could be among the best in baseball. But their pitching … Jeez. So why not sign Pedro?? I just don’t get it. They could’ve had him for a reasonable price. I think, $5 mil. So, is LA Times Dodger beat writer, Dylan Hernandez right? Do they just wait and and see what happens, then go out and get an Eric Bedard or a Washburn (Wahsburn??? He stinks!) or even a Roy Halladay in a trade deadline deal? I don't like that kind of planning, but if they get that arm or two, and enhnace their awful bullpen, they'll be very hard to beat. All that being said, going into the season, the Dodgers have their best chance of going to the World Series since 1994. Anyway, here are my intrepid predictions for '09:

NL

West

D'Backs (Could have everything they need)
Dodgers (Hitting rich, pitching poor? Billingsley, Kershaw need to be aces at a very young age and bullpen is needy)
Giants (Pitching rich, hitting poor)
Rockies (No Jeff Francis, no Matt Holliday, no replacements)
Dads (Rebuilding. Look for them to unload Peavy and everyone by mid season)

Central

Cubbies (World Series caliber club if their arms stay healthy and Milton Bradley doesn't pull a Mt. Vesuvius)
Cards (You can't keep this franchise down for too long. Lot riding on Carpenter and Wainright)
Brewers (Losing Sabathia and Sheets didn't help. Still could surprise)
Reds (Good young bats/arms. Could finish as high as 2nd. When you get rid of Adam Dunn, you're much better)
'Stros (Oswalt, Berkman, Lee and ... whom?)
Bucs (Can't be fun being a Pirate fan anymore. McClouth, Doumit, Moss could help them to elevate)

East

Phillies (Not convinced K Rod and Putz are enough to dethrone potent champs)
Mets (Not convinced KRod and Putz are enough to dethrone potent champs)
Braves (Reinvention of their pitching staff and a resurgent Francouer and Jones can keep them in the running)
Marlins (Can never count this franchise out. Hanley Ramirez and Uggla can lead good young talent)
Nats (Might win 5 more games than last year - if they're lucky. Watch Millege, Zimmerman and Flores)

Wild Card - Mets or Dodgers

AL

West

Halos (If they can get 3/5ths of their starting staff healthy, can win 100 games again)
A's (Improved offense with Holliday. Always have strong starting pitching)
Rangers (Typically all hit, no pitch. Look for rookie ss, Elvis Andruss to emerge)
Mariners ( Griffey back, winning ... not)

Central

Tribe (Indians will be on the warpath. Strong starting arms, Sizemore becoming the superstar he's projected to be)
Twins ( Not sure why or how, but they'll be there)
Tiggers (Detroit won't have the awful start they had last year. Verlander should be better)
Chisox (Quentin and Alexi Ramirez will be strong. Their pitching may be weaker this year)
Royals (Perenially on the rise. Greinke, Alex Gordon and De Jesus could help to elevate them)

East

Yanks (You don't spend half the stimulus package for nothing. This team is going to be hard to beat)
Bosox (There are few holes on this team. If they lose the East, it won't be my much)
Rays (Won't be an off year. Should win as many games as last year. Just Yanks & Bosox will be better. Where's Price?)
Jays (Not willing to spend the money to win anymore)
Birds (The Orioles greatness is long gone. Markakis shoiuld go off)

Wild Card - Boston or the Yanks

World Series: Yanks/Cubs

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

It's Only April

Well, as the season begins next week, here are a few thoughts about the preseason:

Of course, spring training means very little, but the Dodgers look awful. Billingsley looks worse than he should, groin injury or no, and Kershaw, Kuroda, Wolf and McDonald have more question marks than the Riddler's green tights. Their bullpen looks like crap. Offensively, Ethier, Furcal and Hudson don't seem themselves, but I'm not too worried. With Manny, they should be somewhat of an offensive force, providing Kemp, Ethier, Martin & Loney all hit. Still think it's a shame Blake DeWitt, whom I think is ready to be a star, will likely be sent to Triple A to get at bats. Casey Blake will play 3rd, make very few errors and hit a few dongs, while batting around .270, approach 85 RBI, but will strike out a ton with runners on base and have long streaks of futility. DeWitt, if given the chance, would do more, I think. So, how will the West be won? Well, the Giants have some great pitching. The key to the Giants, however, will be the bat of young corner infielder, Pablo Sandoval and left fielder, Fred Lewis. Even if Sandoval has an Evan Longoria-type year, and even with Lincecum, Cain, et al on the mound, I don't see the weak-hitting Giants winning the division. But they can come close. The Dodgers needed to replace Derek Lowe's arm and they just didn't. Who knows? Their young pitching staff can end up making Ned Colletti look like Billy Beane and remind us of the young A's staff from a few years back, with Zito, Hudson, Mulder or they could be ... not as good. My gut tells me that, in spite of Manny signing and the Giants' fine pitching, the Snakes might well be the team to beat in that division. They definitely seem ready. With Webb and Haren, they still have the best 1-2 in the division, maybe the league. Lot riding on the bats of Justin Upton & Chris Young, the health of Eric Byrnes. I'll get back to you in a few days, as, this time of year, my feelings fluctuate like the Arizona desert breezes.

The WBC is thankfully over and congrats to the Asians. The Japanese outlasted the Koreans and the US went back to their training camps. No, the WBC shouldn't just be about the Americans winning it all, but we certainly can field a better team and I think we owe it to the world to play harder. Thus, the games must have more meaning and that's pretty hard to accomplish when there's a season coming up and so much money involved. I still say you play the games in indoor stadiums immediately after the Word Series, or, even better, every 4 years, you extend the All Star Break to 2 and a half weeks. You play the All Star game on Monday night and you send your WBC team off to play immediately thereafter. The players are in the middle of their season, so they're going to be at their best and they run the same risk of getting hurt that they run in March, except they should be in better shape in July. Also, there's no March Madness, NBA, NHL or NFL to distract fans from the event. So what if the Word Series extends to the 2nd week of November? It's only every 4 years. To me, it's a no-brainer.