2011 Predictions by Bleaky Bleakington

Well, once again we embark upon another season and, once again, I write of little hope for Dodger fans - even less so than in previous years. My apologies to all those rosy cheeked die hard Blue crew Dodger maniacs who think their beloved bums actually stand a chance. In fact, this year more than ever, I encourage those Dodger fans - TRUE Dodger fans - to stay away from the Ravine and avoid giving any money to the horrible bastard(s) who has/have been holding our beloved Dodgers hostage for the last 8 years. I don't want to hear about the playoff appearances under the McCourts' stewardship. They meant nothing before '08. He doesn't get Manny for free in '08 and the Dodgers finish 3rd in the West. A weak division in '09, along with great years by Ethier and Kemp, partly generated by Manny's presence in the lineup during the majority of the season, allowed them to reach the playoffs a second consecutive time. A Loney line drive resulting in a severe miscue by Matt Holliday helped enable them to reach the NLCS a second consecutive time and put them in position to once again be embarrassed by Philadelphia... for a second consecutive time. A good owner - an owner who cares about his loyal fan base - does what's necessary to put the winning cogs in a machine that would enable it to reach it's peak performance. McCourt, having spent nothing to buy the team, having used his profits from the team for his own personal use - houses, cars, private jets, etc - did nothing except sign Manny to a 2-year deal. He never made a serious run at the Lees, Sabathias and Halladays. He never seriously pursued the Mark Teixeiras, Prince Fielders, Michael Youngs and Carl Crawfords. He has no real interest in seeing this team win. What is and always has been most important to Frank McCourt and his awful wife, is their bottom line. And we, the fans, pay the price. The team traditionally overrates its homegrown talent, and has perfected that offense in the McCourt era. The team doesn't move to augment its limited talent with top established performers and subsequently suffers for it. If the Martins, Loneys, Kemps and Billingsleys underperform - and they invariably do - we're left with nothing. This year, more than ever, that bargain basement practice will be brought to light. This team looks bad going into 2011 and I think will continue to look bad until there's an owner in the owner's box who actually cares about the Dodgers, their legacy and their fans. The Dodgers may have finally truly become the Chicago Cubs West and, if Frank McCourt gets his way, could be well on their way to becoming the Kansas City Royals West. HOWEVER...

THE IFS HAVE IT

Once again, the ifs - and there are so damn many of them this year for the Dodgers - are the factor in determining if the Dodgers will be successful at all. Here are the main ones:

IF Clayton Kershaw does more than just show signs of being the ace left hander he's supposed to be - and he's still quite young - and performs like one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball - that means 18-20 wins, plenty of k's and a low ERA while limiting his walks and losing his deer-in-the-headlights mentality when something doesn't go his way...

IF Matt Kemp has a MONSTER YEAR - and I mean a MONSTER YEAR, which would mean he'd have to at least double his numbers from last year, which would mean he'd have to get his head on straight and play hard all the time and actually care and be smarter... (I actually feel, with the addition of mentor, Davey Lopes, Kemp will have a much better year. That's really putting myself on the line)

IF Andre Ethier has a MONSTER YEAR - and establishes himself as a true force to be reckoned with in the National League and becomes a bon-a-fide superstar, putting up .300 +, 30+ and 100 +...

IF Chad Billingsley can put together an entire season in which he's extremely effective and grows a pair, and finish around 17+, with an ERA @ or under 3.00...

IF the rest of the Dodgers starting staff - Lilly, Garland and Kuroda can pitch up to their over hyped expectations (people keep saying the Dodgers have a great staff because they have "five viable starters." Viable?? So what? Compare their staff to the Phillies and the Giants) and each win 14 - 16 games...

IF Juan Uribe can at least duplicate his power numbers from last year while bringing up his BA and OBP...

IF James Loney can start hitting consistently and for more power and actually play like he's awake...

IF Rafael Furcal can avoid hurting his back or something else... (he won't)

IF their awful-looking left field platoon of Gibbons/Thames produces and doesn't blow too many plays in the outfield....

IF they find a suitable EVERYDAY replacement for Casey Blake...

IF Rod Barajas or an AJ Ellis or Hector Giminez emerges as a solid everyday catcher...

IF their bullpen can hold any leads with the new acquisition of over-hyped Matt Guerrier AND Kenley Jansen or Hong Chih Kuo can effectively replace Broxton as closer when he loses the job by late May...

IF Don Mattingly doesn't choke in his first year as a manager and actually looks like he knows what he's doing (which is highly doubtful) and he uses his bench properly and doesn't detroy his bullpen like his predecessor...

IF someone buys the team mid-season and is willing to make a deal for the player or players they need to get over the top...

IF ALL OF THE ABOVE HAPPENS... THEN, they have a shot. Otherwise, forget it. 4th place again.

If I were Ned Colletti and Donnie Baseball, this is how I would construct the team as they prepare to break camp.

My first order of business would be to RELEASE CASEY BLAKE. This would be my opening day lineup:

Gwynn - CF
Furcal - SS
Ethier - RF
Kemp - LF
Uribe - 3B
Loney - 1B
Giminez - C
DeJesus - 2B
Kershaw -P

The above lineup would give the Dodgers an actual attack with speed at the top, some semblance of power in the middle of the order and would strengthen their defense up the middle and all around for that matter. Why Giminez instead of Barajas? Catcher is a fluid position for this team and the way Giminez has hit this spring, tough to take him out of the lineup. He's a decent enough catcher. Let him slump his way out of it.

THE REST OF MY STAFF:
Billingsley
Lilly
Garland
Kuroda
Hawksworth
(Padilla) Redding
Guerrier
Jansen
Kuo
Broxton

MY BENCH:

Gibbons
Thames
Paul
Barajas
Carroll
Miles

SEND DOWN (players with options)

Ellis
Ely
Troncoso
Navarro
Sands (for a while)
Gordon
Smith
Hoffman
Velez
Kapler (if he accepts)


SAY BYE-BYE TO:
Blake
Castro

I believe that's the best lineup the Dodgers can put on the field at this time. Gibbons could spell Loney at first and play left on occasion, spelling the young Gwynn. Thames should pinch hit and learn to play first base.

MY PREDICTIONS:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL WEST

Giants- Sorry, the World Champs are for real. They should be better than last year

Rockies - Their pitching is weakened somewhat, but they have a solid team, anchored by an ace in Jiminez and two of the 10 best players in baseball in Cargo and Tulo. If starting pitchers, Chacin and Rogers live up to their hype, they could give the Giants a run for their money.

Padres - They still have strong starting pitching and they know how the game is played. Without Adrian Gonzalez, they're greatly weakened, however, and will not contend. But Bud Black is an excellent skipper and should find a way to finish ahead of Mattingly and the Dodgers. The two teams should be very close when the season ends.

Dodgers - I just don't feel they have a chance as composed, made up of Kemp, Ethier, Kershaw, Billingsley and Loney and a bunch of bargain basement items. Bullpen should be slightly improved and Mattingly's novice status will be a huge factor.

D'Backs - Young team. Upton, Young and the rest. Daniel Hudson should emerge. Could surprise but probably not this season.

NL CENTRAL

Brewers - If Zack Greinke returns to health and the addition of Marcum and a seasoned Gallardo, this team should give the Reds and Cards something to worry about. They have a violently potent offense with Fielder in his walk year, Braun, Weeks, McGehee and Hart. Look out for the Brew Crew. They may well have arrived.

Reds - It won't be easy for the Brewers. MVP Votto and company have tasted 1st place and no reason why they shouldn't be pretty darn good again. Key factors are the long awaited emergence of Jay Bruce and Rolen's performance given his age. Aroldis Chapman should be a starter. He won't be. I don't get it. Johnny Gomes could be a key.

Cards - Losing Adam Wainright was huge. Colby Rasmus should become a force to join Pujols and Holliday, but thier bats could be weak beyond those three. Unless Freese becomes a stud or they can trade for Michael Young and they can grab another arm, they should have a rough time winning the Central. But I wouldn't be shocked if they found a way to do it. After all, they do have the best player in baseball.

Pirates - Finally, the Bucs should finish higher than 5th. They're coming. Don't start buying playoff tickets yet, but they're coming. Alvarez, Walker, and Dodger castoff, MacDonald. I think it would be a mistake to platoon Garret Jones.

Cubs - When Starlin Castro is the star of your team, you may be in trouble.

Astros - When Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee are your entire offense, you ARE in trouble.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Offensive challenges and the loss of Utley can maybe make it interesting but there's no way they'll stand pat if Utley stays on the DL or they get no production. Too much money in their pitching staff.

Braves - Good team. Jurgens and Hudson need good years. Looking to Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman for big things.

Marlins - They have young studs in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison who could join a resurgent Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson is a top five NL arm. They could surprise.

Nationals - This is the year Ryan Zimmerman becomes a household name. No Strasburg will hurt them but the addition of Werth makes them an interesting club.

Mets - On their way down faster than the Dodgers but you never know. Their left side of the infield is always dangerous and if Johan Santana comes back strong and Pelfrey has a good year, it could be interesting. But no way they're as good as Philly or the Braves.

Wild Card - Braves

NLCS - Phils over Giants in 7

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL WEST

Rangers - Well, hold on there, partner! I reckon we don't aim to leave quite just yet... Look for anopther potent offensevie club with young arms getting better.

Angels - It's all Mike Scioscia. His owner did next to nothing in the offseason in acquiring Vernon Wells. They have no 3rd baseman, a broken first baseman, not much of a catcher, no real additions to their pitching staff and I still think they'll compete til the final week.

A's - Could be right up their with the Halos and the Rangers this year. Anderson, Gonzales, Cahill and Braden make a fine young staff and they've added Matsui and Kouzmanoff. They could contend.

Mariners - Don't underestimate their pitching staff, especially if Pineda is the real deal to join King Felix and Doug Fister. My prediction, however, is they don't have the bats and King Felix is in pinstripes by August,

AL CENTRAL

White Sox - What a race this is gonna be! The White Sox on paper aren't any better than Minnesota or Detoit, really, just slightly more balanced. I think they're going to win a very close race. Look for Gordon Beckham and Alezei Ramirez to perform well up the middle and look for Carlos Quentin to return to form with Adam Dunn and Konerko creating a formidable one-two punch. If Peavy comes back healthy, that could be a clincher.

Twins - If Morneau recovers completely from his concussion, this team can be extremely dangerous. Their pitching could be problematic, with Liriano and Pavano being the keys. Watch out for this kid, Duensing. He came up huge for them on the mound last year. If Danny Valencia can hit, they could make things very tough for opposing teams.

Tigers - The Twins, Tigers and Chisox likely will finish within 3 games of each other. Hard to say who's better. Verlander leads a tough staff. I like another year of Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer is supposed to be a stud. They've added Victor Martinez to join Miguel Cabrera. Wow.

Royals - Like the Pirates, they're on their way. Don't get too excited, but they're coming.. some time... soon. Should be an exciting team in a year or two... or who know? Maybe it's coming sooner than expected.

Indians - What a mess the Tribe has become. Grady who? Will he ever be healthy enough to play to his potential? They have the Cabreras up the middle and Choo in right and Carmona on the mound and pray for rain or the next season of Hot in Cleveland. Because it's likely to be mighty cold and empty at the old Jake. Still, any team in this division can turn it on and be a surprise.

AL EAST

Red Sox - tough to predict otherwise. What DON'T they have? With the additions of Adrian Gonzales and Carl Crawford, no ones' going to out hit them. Their Achilles heel could be shortstop and their starting pitching. Look for an upgrade from Marco Scutaro at short. John Lester needs to have a monster season and Josh Beckett and Dice K and Lackey need to really rebound. And what of young Buchholz? Suffice it to say, their offense will score a lot of runs.

Yankees - Can never count out the Pins. They'll have pitching issues for awhile until Cashman lands King Felix or someone. But as they're composed now, with Russell Martin as their starting catcher, they're a game or two behind Boston in my standings. (Watch. Now that Martin is no longer a Dodger, he'll shine in pinstripes) Cano must continue to be a monster and Teixeira must rebound from an off year. It's always a pick 'em in the AL East between the above 2 teams.

Rays - They lost Crawford, Pena and Bartlett but they still have Longoria and David Price. Niemann and Hellickson are up and comers on the mound. James Shields, Manny, Damon and BJ Upton are the keys. Dan Johnson is a weak alternative at first base if you ask me.

Orioles - Yes, the birds are coming back as well. Buck Showalter and company will not sit still and get their birdbrains beat out them every night. Look for improved starting pitching from guys like Guthrie, Matusz and Arietta. Guerrero will put up good numbers and maybe even Matt Wieters will start hitting. Then Brian Roberts and Markakis will have something to play for. They could even finish at .500.

Blue Jays - Aside from the freak year of Jose Bautista, the Blue Jays haven't a lot to look forward to in 2011. Good young pitching in Cecil and Morrow may sustain them but their offense appears to be too weak to challenge in this tough division.

Wild Card - Yanks/Twins

ALCS

Red Sox over the Yankees in 6

World Series

Phils over the Red Sox in 7

You heard it hear first. Have a good season, everyone.